Robust pricing and production with information partitioning and adaptation

Georgia Perakis
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) – Sloan School of Management

Melvyn Sim
National University of Singapore (NUS) – NUS Business School

Qinshen Tang
Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University

Peng Xiong
National University of Singapore (NUS)

This research is supported by the Ministry of Education, Singapore, under its 2019 Academic Research Fund Tier 3 grant call (Award ref: MOE-2019-T3-1-010)
ABSTRACT

We introduce a new distributionally robust optimization model to address a two-period, multiitem joint pricing and production problem, which can be implemented in a data-driven setting using historical demand and side information pertinent to the prediction of demands. Starting from an additive demand model, we introduce a new partitioned-moment-based ambiguity set to characterize its residuals, which also determines how the second-period demand would evolve from the first-period information in a data-driven setting. We investigate the joint pricing and production problem by proposing a cluster-adapted markdown policy and an affine recourse adaptation, which allow us to reformulate the problem as a mixed-integer linear optimization problem that we can solve to optimality using commercial solvers. We also extend our framework to ensemble methods using a set of ambiguity sets constructed from different clustering approaches. Both the numerical experiments and case study demonstrate the benefits of the cluster-adapted markdown policy and the partitioned moment-based ambiguity set in improving the mean profit over the empirical model—when applied to most out-of-sample tests.